Monday, August 25, 2014

Something like 2008 - interest rate cuts - not really, because there


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The following chartokhoz only give the necessary explanation, anyway for all to read. We recommend that readers under 21 years only considered a parental control next to the graphs, because bad things discount kitchen cabinets seem to them.
What is the difference between the above figure (quarterly GDP developments in relation to the previous one year period) and the current situation between 2007 -2008 as (in connection with the beginning of the American subprime crisis exploding financial-economic crisis)?
The answer is simple, much lower values began to fall, as in 2007. Now there is no overwhelming BRIC economies, which pull the world out of the crisis by her hair. More dramatic slowdown in China, Brazil, the growth is gone, India's growth in the 10-year lows, the EU already in recession. Inflation has ceased to exist, to lower the interest rates?
Something like 2008 - interest rate cuts - not really, because there's discount kitchen cabinets nowhere to cut interest rates. There has never been such a long time at such low interest rates in the USA and UK. Europe seems premature interest rate increases from the end of 2011 to avenge themselves for further interest rate cuts to come. India's first three years of reduced interest rates in recent months. China now holds almost there in terms of the base rate as the worst period of the crisis-inch 2008 -2009. Central banks are becoming less room for maneuver.
The main countries manufacturing purchasing managers' index data we see in the graph - these data reflect the evolution of the economy. Similarly, we can represent the service indices, the same result was called for. Slowly began to shrink in the manufacturing sector, all the major countries of the world region. Worse than the end of 2007, the purchasing managers index has fallen compared to 20-30% in last year's peaks ... and only now beginning to emerge in the second, more serious wave of the crisis. discount kitchen cabinets Yes, you have some bounce over the 50 values, discount kitchen cabinets similar to America in early 2007. This is important, the S & P500 analysis noted.
The S & P chart below, the Fed and ECB main measures. It is clear that the 2008 crisis period, the manufacturing purchasing managers' indices discount kitchen cabinets fall in the S & P 500 went down. In 2007, however - despite've even been one month below the 50 value of American manufacturing ISM data - could still continue discount kitchen cabinets to rise in the stock market index, over 8-9 months.
The situation now is that the market reaction will proceed faster, no longer in 8-9 months discount kitchen cabinets "optimism." The Fed has not made further monetary action, which further repíthetné pegged to the S & P500, so soon we reach the climax of the index, which in any case be lower than the 2007 peak (expect up to around 1395). discount kitchen cabinets This can help in the formation of the peak, if - as the beginning of 2007 - has suddenly snaps over the 50 values discount kitchen cabinets of 1-2 months after the American manufacturing ISM. Then, however, if the Fed really does not go already this year, there will be no QE3 (or the year of the presidential election, so this is the most likely scenario), the BRIC countries will slow down, and the EU has demonstrated over several months to recession, the leaders did not able to believe, through viable contingency plan put in front of the market, the manufacturing discount kitchen cabinets indexes ala

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